430: The Most Important Question in the Investing World

Published: Jan. 2, 2023, 9 a.m.

Answer this one question and you won’t have money concerns for the rest of your life. The Dow Jones once fell so hard that it didn’t recover for 25 years Japan’s NIKKEI peaked in 1989 and still has not recovered. I discuss the differences between an economic recession and depression. During the 2008 housing crisis, national housing values only fell 19%.  Originally, 401(k)s were called “Salary Reduction Plans”. They had to scrap the name to foster participation. Some investing questions are: How do I max out my 401(k)? How can I attend my dream college? How can I become a millionaire? After building context, I reveal the most important question in the investing world. Learn how to keep emotions separate from investing. The vital question is: “Will this property secure an income stream?” Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/430 National Median Home Prices: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Analyze your RE portfolio at (use code “GRE” for 10% off): MyPropertyStats.com  Memphis property that cash flows from Day 1: www.MidSouthHomeBuyers.com I’d be grateful if you search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” and do this for the show. Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free—text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith’s personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Full transcript:   Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Happy New Year! What is the most important question in the entire investing world? It is a vital one - and this coming year makes it as relevant as ever.    Asking yourself this question & answering it can make you wealthy - and you’ve probably never even heard this question before. That & loads of financial education, today on Get Rich Education! _____________   Welcome to GRE! From Lake Champlain, NY to Lake Charles, Louisiana and across 188 nations worldwide, you’re listening to one of America’s longest-running and most listened-to investing shows.   I’m your host. My name’s Keith Weinhold. I’m grateful to be here myself. Thank you FOR being here… and you aren’t here for me. You’re here for you… so let’s build your wealth today.   What’s the most important, vital, essential, and almost MANDATORY question in the investing world today?   While you’re thinking about that, let me build some context so that it makes sense.   Now, why don’t we discuss stocks more on the show here?    When most people hear the word “investing”, they might think of stocks first. Their mind might shoot there immediately.   When someone refers to the market, they just simply say, “the market”, they typically mean the stock market, like the DJIA or the S&P 500.   Look, with persistently higher interest rates, it’s likely that economic headwinds are still coming.   Now, what if things got worse than a recession and we entered a depression? I’m not saying that it’s likely, but let’s look at what CAN happen because this actually HAS happened.   What can happen in a depression?! The stock market falls  and doesn’t recover for 25 years. That’s not a guess. That really happened in the United States!   Yes, the DJIA peaked in 1929.  The market crash hit. These were the times of “The Great Depression”.    Stocks lost nearly 90% of their value. Yes, 90%. That means that after a loss like that, stocks would have to rebound 9X, 900% just to get back to even.   Well, I told you that the US stock market crashed in 1929. The Dow didn't fully recover until late 1954. Yes, 1929 to 1954. That is fully 25 years… just to get back to even.   25 years of zero gain. It HAS happened, right here in the USA, the most powerful nation in the world.   Well, you might wonder… ah, c’mon, could that really happen to any major stock market in an ADVANCED economy today, in more modern times, even if things got really bad?   Oh, yes, things don’t even have to get really bad. Understand that the third-largest economy on earth, still to this day is Japan.    Japan’s NIKKEI peaked in 1989. It still hasn’t recovered from its high 34 years ago. Yes, that’s the MAIN stock market index for Japan - the Tokyo Stock Exchange.   That’s still going on right now, today. It still hasn’t recovered back to its 1989 level. It’s not even close today.   So it doesn’t even TAKE a depression for those stock market calamities to occur in major world nations’ stock markets.   Well, what’s the difference between an economic recession and a depression?    The short story is that a recession is a substantial downturn in ONE nation’s economy, and an economic DEPRESSION is widespread across many nations.   And there are some other distinctions.   Right? And the old joke is that a recession is when your neighbor loses their job and depression is when you lose YOUR job.   Well, what about real estate? Real estate values don't always go up.    What happened to real estate in its ugly downturn about 15 years ago where we had a mortgage meltdown from liar mortgage loans and a glut of housing supply? (neither of which are happening now, BTW)   During the ugly Global Financial Crisis in & around 2008 & 2009. Well, during that time, real estate went down 19% nationally.   Yes, on a nominal basis, the national median home price was down 19% from $257K down to $208K.   That’s it? Maybe you’re thinking, “that’s it”? 19%. This is when everything was going wrong for housing and it didn’t even reach 20% bear market territory fifteen years ago.    And btw, I will put the link to the chart that shows this in the Show Notes for you.    Yes, we really do put links in the Show Notes for you when I tell you that we will. Haha!   You can see that at GetRichEducation.com/430    This is episode 430 of the GRE Podcast, so just go to GetRichEducation.com/430 to see today’s resources and today’s show notes also, you have access to an entire transcript - all of the lyrics… like we do for some of our episodes here.   So that if you have a deaf or hard of hearing person in your life, they can, I suppose “read” today’s show rather than listen to it.   Or maybe you want to read along as you listen… or read after you listen in order to reinforce your learning.   Now, at the start of the recession in 2008, the national median housing value was $234K… and it took all of but four years to recover and exceed that level.   Yes, from the start of the GFC, housing values only took four years to recover.   The source of that information is the Census Bureau & HUD.    That data is also available for you in the Show Notes at GetRichEducation.com/430   So the point is that real estate or stocks can lose value. But real estate is substantially more stable.   If you buy RE in a good market and you have an average or better PM (meaning they’re “just OK” with screening tenants), then you can sleep well. It’s hard to lose big.   You might not even be in real estate for the values. You might be in it for the cash flow.   This is helping you build context and provide you with a clue about The Most Important Question in the entire Investing World.    While you’re still pondering what that question might be, because I’ll build some more context for you so that this question makes complete sense… and let’s start to isolate it here.   Real estate builds wealth.   Stocks though, can maintain wealth after you’ve built it. But you’ve got to build it first.    So that’s why this most important investing question today… isn’t about stocks.   Well, what about stocks or mutual funds in a retirement plan? Is that more relevant?    Enjoy the compounding growth on PRE-tax dollars & all that.   Take stocks’ 10% return and like I detailed two episodes ago, adjust that down for inflation, emotion, taxes, fees, and volatility… and what do you have left?   I’ll tell you what the key question is not. How can I max out my retirement plan? Oh geez. The new annual contribution limit to 401(k)s this year is $22,500 BTW.   I’ll admit, I used to have a day job and I maxxed out my retirement for a few years before I realized that maxing out my retirement…   … was minimizing my present. And minimizing next year, and minimizing next decade, and minimizing my life for decades until I hopefully was still not just alive… but actually healthy enough to truly enjoy DEFERRING my quality of life all those decades.   Maximizing your retirement contribution means that you’re living a SMALLER life for decades.    The risk of delayed gratification is denied gratification.   Now there IS something to be said though, for the psychological benefit of you having something saved for the future, even if it certainly diminishes your life in the near-term.   Instead, with income property, I discovered that I can invest in something that pays me an income stream TODAY… without jeopardizing my future one bit