284: Coronavirus And Your Money

Published: March 16, 2020, 8 a.m.

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) threatens life, business, and the economy. 11 years of U.S. economic expansion could end soon. (**The entire episode transcript is below. You can read along as you listen.) Closed businesses mean that supply chains are disrupted. This could make it difficult for flippers and value-add apartment projects. Travel, hospitality, and leisure business troubles mean that short-term rentals like AirBnB will have high vacancies.  Short-term rentals cater to business travelers and vacationers - both vulnerable in this downturn. Long-term rentals are better positioned. As long as people are alive, they need a home. Mortgage interest rates have hit their lowest rate EVER since they’ve been tracked in 1971. The Fed made a 0.5% emergency rate cut. Expect more cuts. This punishes savers and rewards borrowers. Stocks recently fell more than 20% from their recent high; that's the definition of a bear market. Coronavirus’ effects are fast-moving and no one really knows the future. This is uncharted territory. With this in mind, I’d expect real estate to fare better than other asset classes. Also expect: Stronger: dollar, bonds, gold.  Weaker: many stocks & businesses, short-term rentals, oil, silver.    The unemployment rate will likely rise; I discuss what this means for your tenants. Low mortgage interest rates can be locked in for 30 years, outlasting the coronavirus pandemic. Check out our two new property providers in Orlando and Des Moines: getricheducation.com/orlando and getricheducation.com/iowa __________________ Resources mentioned: Properties, with two new markets: www.GREturnkey.com Recommended Coronavirus resource: Peak Prosperity YouTube Channel Mortgage Loans: RidgeLendingGroup.com QRPs: text “QRP” in ALL CAPS to 72000 or: TotalControlFinancial.com New Construction Turnkey Property: NewConstructionTurnkey.com Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith’s personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Welcome to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. The coronavirus, COVID-19, has infected humans and financial markets too.   This creates both problems and opportunities for you, the investor. Today, on Get Rich Education.   Welcome to GRE. From Uruguay to the Ukraine to the UAE to the USA and across 188 nations worldwide, this is Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.    Yeah, you’re back in that abundant place, where your QUALITY OF LIFE exceeds your cost of living.   The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that began in Wuhan, China in November of last year when it transferred from animal to human is poised to affect the economy of every world nation and every U.S. state.   It's not SARS or Zika.   This transmits easily and it is perhaps 20x more deadly than the common flu.   Some experts believe it's the worst outbreak in America since the Spanish flu of 1918.   That was the worst pandemic of the 20th century.   And you know what, it didn’t have to be this way ... with coronavirus.    As my chief informant on the matter, Dr. Chris Martenson says, it didn’t have to be this way.   Often placing the economy ahead of human life, health organizations and governments have often done a DEPLORABLE job of handling this, often understating the threat.   The World Health Organization was even reluctant to acknowledge that the coronavirus is a global pandemic … which it surely has been for a long time. Well, they only acknowledged that five days ago.   Well now that agencies weren’t preparing people sooner - coronavirus is poised to threaten even more people - which in turn, will make the economy even worse than if the threat had just been accurately represented in the first place.   I’m going to focus on coronavirus’ likely effects on real estate and the other financial markets shortly.   But let’s - you and I - outline this together first.   The virus causes only mild or moderate symptoms for most people, like a fever and cough …   … but it can progress to serious illness including pneumonia, especially in older adults and people with existing health problems.    The World Health Organization says mild cases last about two weeks, while most patients with serious illness recover in about three to six weeks. Based on what I said earlier, consider the source there.   My heart goes out to the victims of this - past, present, and future.   The most credible source that I follow thinks that the virus will reach its peak in the U.S. 1 to 3 months from now.   I've followed this story closely since January and if you receive our Get Rich Education newsletter, you’ve known for a while that my favorite source of TRUSTWORTHY coronavirus information was and still is: the Peak Prosperity YouTube Channel, which Chris Martenson hosts.   In fact, I’ve mentioned that resource in our GRE newsletter for you twice - the first time was back on February 6th.   So if you get the Get Rich Education Newsletter, you’ve had plenty of time to get in front of this.   You know, it’s interesting. I had Chris Martenson on the show here earlier this year and we talked about “The Fed” printing money. That was right before coronavirus literally went viral.   Before I tell you about the affects on your real estate - both good and bad - let’s establish a baseline here.   Coronavirus is threatening because it has a substantially higher R-naught value than the flu.    If the R-naught value is greater than 1, that means that one infected person will spread the virus to MORE THAN one person then the disease can spread.   The way a virus dies out is for it’s R-naught value to be less than 1. Then, one infected person, on average spreads it to fewer than one person.   Well, the common flu has an R-naught value of about 1.3.   Coronavirus (COVID-19) is believed to have an R-naught value of more than 3 and maybe even more than 6. So it spreads easily.   It spreads asymptomatically - and that’s bad.    There’s no vaccine available - and most believe it’ll take a while to develop one.   And, you can find resources elsewhere on how to prevent the spread like social distancing, avoiding gatherings, and lots of handwashing.   But because this is an investing platform and I don't have a degree in pathology or epidemiology, and much of what I just told you there, I learned myself in the past month or two …   Let me now get into my lane: how do I think coronavirus will affect your money and your real estate?   Well, it probably already has.   Businesses are closing. Colleges have suspended classes. Many events are being cancelled or postponed.    SXSW in Austin, Texas was one of the first major EVENTS to be cancelled in the U.S. March Madness basketball won’t have any crowd there.   We’ve got an entire country - Italy - that’s essentially shut down.   When businesses close and more people work from home, this disrupts supply chains.    That COULD include less supply of sheet rock or faucet handles or whatever - and affect value-add properties because so much building material comes from China.   It could be a tougher time to be a flipper then if you’re about to start a rehab or if you’re in the middle of a rehab.   If you're upgrading an apartment building, that could slow things down. You need materials.    This may or may not create disruptions for turnkey property providers. We’ll see.    You’re in a better position if you’re a prospective turnkey buyer waiting on a rehab - maybe that’ll create a delay until your property is ready. Maybe it won’t.   China accounts for nearly 30% of world manufacturing.   But importantly, they also make component goods for finished products.   An American car can't be finished if it doesn't have the battery and exhaust system from China.   Virtually every major car company has a component made in China.    Now, I see conflicting reports of whether some previously closed Chinese businesses have really come back online or not. We need to learn more there.   Travel, hospitality, and leisure businesses are already hurting.    Now, where hospitality meets real estate, we’ve got hotel rooms, Bed & Breakfasts and short-term rental platforms like AirBnB and VRBO.   Like I’ve said before, and not too long ago on the show at all - is that these short-term rentals are not very recession-resistant.   That’s because short-term rentals cater to two main groups of people - business travelers and vacationers. That’s who occupies those properties.   Well, what are business travelers and vacationers doing right now? They are postponing travel or cancelling travel left-and-right due to coronavirus concerns.   How great would you feel about owning AirBnBs right now?   Short-term rentals like AirBnBs are not as recession-resistant as long-term rentals.   Just a couple, three months ago, it probably sounded different to you when I mentioned that short-term rentals aren’t very recession-resistant.    Because perhaps you were still feeling good about our 11-year-long economic expansion.   But those same words probably sound and feel different to you now that some think that a coronavirus-induced recession could even be imminent - though that remains to be seen.   Also, expect big hits to: chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and electronics.   Apple Corporation is so dependent on Chinese manufacturing for their iPhone. That’s the bad news.   Now, let’s talk about the good news.   Mortgage interest rates have hit all-time lows - yes, lower than their lows that they hit in 2012, shortly after coming off of the Great Recession.   All-time lows - as long as Freddie Mac has been tracking them - which is since 1971. They’ve never been lower than they are now.    Today, you can get a rate in the low 3s for primary residences, I’ve even heard of a few people closing 30-year fixed amortizing loans for less than 3%. Just astoundingly good.   And of course, investor loans are often about ¾% higher than those.   The Fed has been pumping tens of billions, even hu