Ep41. Irans Disorderer-in-Chief Dies; and as Russia Advances, Is Kharkiv at risk of being turned into Mariupol?
b"The sun is shining, the flowers are in bloom, there is a dense fog over the Iranian-Azeri border, what time does that make it? Russo-Ukrainian Summer Offensive Time!\\xa0\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nThis episode starts with a short emergency-cast about the crash of the Iranian President\\u2019s helicopter due to fog. Jason briefly investigates if the death of this \\u2018disorderer-in-chief\\u2019 is likely to bring any more order to the Middle East region, before rejoining our regularly scheduled programming about Ukraine.\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nOver the last two weeks, Russia has been gaining territory in Ukraine\\u2019s northeast, while the shelling of Kharkiv has progressively increased. This does not come as a surprise. The Ukrainians have been on the back foot militarily since their 2023 Summer offensive stalled.\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nWhat is the strategic logic of Russia\\u2019s recent advance? Jason is joined by acclaimed military historian Saul David. He co-hosts our sister podcast within the Goalhanger network, Battleground. Saul and Jason debate the strategic logic behind Russia\\u2019s recent moves \\u2013 proposing three alternative theses for Russia\\u2019s actions: 1) Putin is trying to create a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine; 2) the current offensive is a faint to draw Ukrainian troops to the north prior to a Russian attack in Donbass; 3) Russia is trying to turn Kharkiv into Mariupol, Grozny, or Aleppo, that is to say to aerially decimate the city and inflict tremendous humanitarian suffering on its populace without any hope of actually conquering it.\\xa0\\xa0\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nAfter sketching a broad-brush stroke picture of the tactical and strategic situation on the ground, Saul and Jason discuss how new shipments of Western armaments will affect the current fighting; recent Russian attempts to assassinate President Zelensky; if the murder of Navalny has changed battlefield dynamics at all; the role of China and the ongoing Gaza war upon the fighting in Ukraine; and what are the relevant historical parallels to the current fighting and what lessons they hold for orderers.\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nTwitter: @DisorderShow\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nSubscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/\\xa0\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nWebsite: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/\\xa0\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nProducer: George McDonagh\\xa0\\nExec Producer: Neil Fearn\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nShow Notes Links\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nFor a quick overview of Iranian President Raisi\\u2019s death and what happens next: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/world/europe/raisi-iran-instability.html\\xa0\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nListen to Goalhanger\\u2019s excellent Battleground Pod here: https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/battleground\\xa0\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nGet Saul\\u2019s Sunday Times bestselling book, Sky Warriors: British Airborne Forces in the Second World War, here:\\xa0\\nhttps://www.amazon.co.uk/Sky-Warriors-British-Airborne-Forces/dp/0008522162\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nLearn more about what is going on:\\xa0\\nIs the Russian offensive a faint? Read more here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/16/russias-victory-day-campaign-just-ran-into-a-wall-of-ukrainian-mechanized-troops/\\xa0\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nMore on Tactics and Armaments affecting development in Kharkiv: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/15/russia-kharkiv-offensive-ukraine-vovchansk-weapons-biden/\\xa0\\xa0\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nFor more on Blinken\\u2019s visit to Kyiv: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/14/ukraine-zelenskiy-calls-for-more-air-defences-as-blinken-arrives-in-kyiv\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nAnd on the Russian plot to assassinate Zelensky:\\xa0 https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-assassination-plot-foiled-1897852\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nFind out more on Ukraine's will to survive and defend Kharkiv from Jade McGlynn:\\xa0\\nHer recent Pod with Arthur Snell:\\xa0\\xa0\\nhttps://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656?i=1000653710733\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nAnd her Dispatch from Kharkiv commemorating the 2 year anniversary of the war: https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/despatch-from-kharkiv/\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\nFinally, Jason and Bill Browder\\u2019s ideas on the need for a seizure of Frozen Russian asset via Navalny acts: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/what-makes-a-martyr-alexei-navalny-shines-a-light-on-vladimir-putin-s-evil-tyranny/ar-BB1ja4If\\xa0\\xa0\\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices"