43: Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania
Stephen and James Grugett are programmers, entrepreneurs, and cofounders of the website Manifold Markets, which hosts user-created prediction markets. They join the podcast to discuss the Salem Center/CSPI Forecasting Tournament on Manifold Markets, which launched last week.
The Grugetts and Richard talk about the origins of Manifold Markets, what differentiates it from other prediction market sites, how academics have used the platform to bet on which studies replicate, and the potential for conditional markets to inform public policy debates. They end by brainstorming ideas to increase the value and prestige of Mana (M$), the platform’s currency.
Listen in podcast form or watch on YouTube.
Links:
Manifold Markets
CSPI/Salem Tournament on Manifold Markets
Richard Hanania, “Introducing the Salem/CSPI Forecasting Tournament”
Richard Hanania, “Salem Tournament, 5 Days in”
The Economist, “How Spooks are Turning to Superforecasting in the Cosmic Bazaar”
Research.Bet
The Replication Project
Manifold Markets Statistics
Get full access to Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology at www.cspicenter.com/subscribe