Podcasts Education Changing Higher Ed Are You Prepared for the Upcoming Enrollment Cliff with Bill Conley | Changing Higher Ed 034

Are You Prepared for the Upcoming Enrollment Cliff with Bill Conley | Changing Higher Ed 034

Published: March 16, 2020, 7:13 p.m.

This episode addresses the upcoming enrollment cliff that institutions of higher education are facing.\xa0Bill Conley\xa0is\xa0vice president for\xa0enrollment at Bucknell University, which is\xa0in\xa0an enviable position with a 30-percent admittance rate\xa0and a strong alumni base. The institution offers\xa0nationally recognized programs\xa0in arts, science, engineering and management.\xa0\xa0

Conley, who began his career in admissions in 1980,\xa0wrote\xa0the\xa0article, The\xa0Great Enrollment Crash,\xa0published in\xa0The Chronicle\xa0of Higher Education.\xa0He will\xa0retire\xa0in June and begin consulting in enrollment management.\xa0\xa0

A Seismic Change\xa0

Since 1980, there have been periodic declines in high school graduation rates, lingering recessions, and short-term economic and demographic impacts that affected higher education enrollment. However, colleges\xa0and universities\xa0were always able to adapt and adjust to these.\xa0

However, that changed\xa0with the Great Recession of\xa02008 and 2009.\xa0Some colleges lost as much as 50 percent of their endowments\xa0during\xa0those years. In addition, families lost jobs and income and took huge hits in\xa0relation to their\xa0wealth, especially in home equity.\xa0This led to the decline in population growth.\xa0

The Birth\xa0Dirth\xa0in the Midwest and the Northeast, when combined with the decline in high school graduation levels projected\xa0to culminate in\xa02030, has precipitated this structural reality.\xa0Conley\xa0said this situation\xa0is\xa0turning into\xa0a true trough instead of a rough decline.\xa0\xa0

Conley pointed to demographics not being in higher education\u2019s favor, especially in the Northeast and Midwest.\xa0In the Northeast and Midwest, higher education is looking at a declining pool of qualified traditional students, with an expected 20 percent decline in the number of\xa0high\xa0school graduates in 2030. The projected\xa0growth areas in the Southeast and Southwest will not be sufficient to replace this decline. Additionally, the students in these growth areas\xa0are more likely to be first-generation, lower-income college attendees.\xa0\xa0

Conley also pointed to two other factors that are part of this equation. Firstly,\xa0college students by and large attend institutions located with 100 miles of home.\xa0Secondly, the cost of higher education is increasingly out of reach\xa0for\xa0most families.\xa0

Becoming a Commodity\xa0

Several institutions have done a \u201ctuition reset\u201d during the past decade. To the consumer, it looked as if these institutions had reduced their tuition by 35-50 percent. At the same time, the model eliminated the institution\u2019s responsibility for\xa0providing\xa0financial aid. Very few of these models have worked on a sustained basis.\xa0\xa0

Conley\xa0hypothesized that\xa0in these cases, many consumers\u2019\xa0opinion\xa0is that institutions that charge less are worth less.\xa0Additionally, everyone wants to feel like they are getting a deal, whether through\xa0receiving\xa0a scholarship or a cut price on tuition\xa0(e.g., think J.C. Penney).\xa0Thus, higher education\xa0increasingly\xa0is being viewed as a commodity.\xa0\xa0

Unsustainable\xa0Finances\xa0

Part of the current dilemma has been caused by state policymakers.\xa0Conley\xa0pointed to the states\u2019 decisions to create tax cuts and reduce spending on higher education. He noted that in 2005, Rutgers University received 81 percent of its budget from the state; now, only 16 percent of this institution\u2019s budget comes from the state. That difference must be covered through tuition hikes. This is resulting in public universities\u2013especially flagships\u2014recruiting prospective students from across its state border to enroll out-of-state students who will pay out-of-state tuition. This reduces the space for in-state residents in university classes.\xa0\xa0

Since 2000, the\xa0tuition to attend the\xa0average public institution has increased by 60 percent. The\xa0tuition at\xa0private institutions\xa0has\xa0increased by 45 percent. The discount rate in 2007 was about 38 cents of each dollar\xa0being repurposed as financial aid. It\u2019s now over 50 percent.\xa0\xa0

However, some of the schools that are\xa0contemplating or undertaking\xa0closures\xa0or mergers\xa0are above 70 percent.\xa0This percentage\xa0is unsustainable because an institution only has 30 cents left to invest or cover\xa0institutional costs.\xa0Nearing this point\xa0should be\xa0a warning signal\xa0to\xa0the institution\xa0that they are\xa0running out of time to enroll students at a price point that will sustain a thriving university.\xa0

The Court of Public Opinion\xa0

The public continues to\xa0be\xa0concerned about\xa0whether they can\xa0trust\xa0higher education.\xa0People ask about return on investment and whether the student will be prepared for careers.\xa0Varsity Blues didn\u2019t help the situation.\xa0\xa0

Institutions need to look closely at mission, money and majors to be able to successfully navigate the headwind to move forward.\xa0

Mission: Many institutions have a mission statement that was created when they were founded and may have been tweaked a little bit with empty language in the ensuing years.\xa0Conley\xa0recommended a rigorous review and assessment of the mission to determine whether it needs to be updated in a compelling manner. This updated version could help the institution be viewed as a distinctive, differentiated place.\xa0\xa0

Money includes focusing on identifying the potential group of students. For example, schools may need to change their focus to recruiting post-traditional learners as their service area no longer has a significant group of prospective students between the ages of 18-22. This will require institutions to realign their offerings to the emerging demand.\xa0

Majors:\xa0While considering himself a strong proponent of liberal arts education,\xa0Conley\xa0believes that\xa0liberal arts colleges need\xa0to undergo\xa0a significant re-imagination of their\xa0curriculum to prepare students for\xa0having\xa05-10\xa0careers\xa0during their lifetime.\xa0Conley\xa0suggests that the focus needs to shift to competencies that can be developed in both liberal arts and preprofessional environments. Higher education needs to reimagine\xa0how English,\xa0history and political science are relevant\xa0in ensuring graduates are\xa0job-ready. This is being reflected across the higher education landscape;\xa0Tulsa University announced that it was closing down significant majors in arts and humanities, and instead shifting more toward STEM\xa0education.\xa0

Metrics and Measurement\xa0

Metrics and measurement will continue to play a critical role in guiding institutions on the emerging path.\xa0For example,\xa0Bucknell has a powerful student success intelligence model that helps measure when a student is struggling academically and/or\xa0socially. This allows Bucknell\xa0administration, faculty and staff to\xa0be attentive to every student.\xa0

Conley\xa0also pointed out that identifying metrics that measure what matters will become increasingly\xa0important.\xa0Additionally,\xa0Retention is going to be as important as recruitment.\xa0\xa0

Three\xa0Recommendations for Higher Education Leaders\xa0

Conley\xa0suggested three takeaways for higher education leaders:\xa0

  • Recruitment efforts need to be measured\xa0(metrics)\xa0and effective.\xa0
  • Retention efforts need to be state-of-the-art. These efforts can\xa0(and should)\xa0include\xa0leveraging technology and reimagining priorities.\xa0
  • Examine your\xa0curriculum and its long-term relevancy for the smaller group of traditional students who will be attending college over the next 20-30 years.\xa0

Bullet Points\xa0

  • The current demographic changes that are forecast are ones that are going to cause seismic shifts in the higher education landscape.\xa0
  • Higher education needs to reimagine itself so it doesn\u2019t become a commodity.\xa0
  • A major issue is many institution\u2019s financial models, which are unsustainable due to the combination of budget cuts, less state funding and growing discount rates.\xa0
  • Higher education also is facing backlash in public opinion due to situations such as Varsity Blue. Therefore, it\u2019s imperative that higher education institutions make every effort to rebuild trust and goodwill.\xa0
  • Institutions need to reconsider their missions, money and majors in order to remain viable.\xa0\xa0
  • Metrics and measurement needs to be valued. It\u2019s important to establish what metrics are the most meaningful. For example, retention will be as important as recruitment in coming years.\xa0\xa0

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