Slight or low? Which is bigger? Understanding risk perception [Ep. 387]
Do you know which has a greater chance of occurring: a low risk of thunderstorms, or a slight risk of tornadoes? The wording used to convene probability and risk across the weather enterprise is not standardized and thus not widely understood.
\nUniversity of Oklahoma graduate students Emily Lenhardt and Rachael Cross discuss their findings from "How Likely is That Chance of Thunderstorms? A Study of How National Weather Service Forecast Offices Use Words of Estimative Probability and What They Mean to the Public," paperwork they co-wrote along with Makenzie Krocak, Joseph Ripberger, Sean Ernst, Carol Silva, and Hank Jenkins-Smith.
\nTheir argument: No forecast is ever certain, as no meteorological phenomenon is guaranteed to occur. As such, the uncertainty in forecast information should be communicated in a way that makes sense to end-users.
\nThe researchers examined nearly 9,000 tweets from National Weather Service offices across the United States. Their findings: Only 3 tweets accurately convened the true probability of the forecast.
\nThe terms used in these tweets were "generally vague, unqualified notions of probability that may impede the public\u2019s ability to interpret the information hat forecasters are trying to communicate."
\nNow the findings from this study are being used to improve forecast communications.
\nRELATED LINKS:
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- READ THE FULL PAPER \n
- PATREON BONUS CLIP: Things weather nerds should do on a trip to Norman, Oklahoma \n
RELATED SHOWS:
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- Study: Most confused by SPC severe weather outlooks \n
- CWG's Storm Chasing Week \n
- CWG's College Series Part 1 and Part 2 \n
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