Ep. 56 Bob Murphy Explains Austrian Business Cycle Theory, the Inverted Yield Curve, and the Coming Recession
https://www.bobmurphyshow.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/3M-and-10Y-yields.png () Bob goes solo to give a quick explanation of the Mises-Hayek theory of the boom-bust cycle, and how he used it to forecast the financial crisis in 2008 a year ahead of time. He then explains the significance of an “inverted yield curve,” and shows how the Austrians can understand its predictive power much better than Keynesians like Paul Krugman can. . Mentioned in the Episode and Other Links of Interest: The https://lara-murphy.com/the-inverted-yield-curve-and-coming-recession/ (post at Lara-Murphy.com) explaining the decomposition of the yield curve. https://mises.org/library/worst-recession-25-years (Bob’s October 2007 post), warning how bad the coming recession might be. Info regarding https://mises.org/events/mises-institute-seattle-why-american-democracy-fails (the September 14, 2019 Mises Institute event in Seattle). (Contact Bob for a limited offer special deal.) The https://reason.com/2014/11/30/whatever-happened-to-inflation/ (reason.com symposium) on “Whatever happened to inflation?” Paul Krugman’s article on the yield curve, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/opinion/trump-economy.html (“From Trump Boom to Trump Gloom.”) The https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html (Federal Reserve’s papers) on the yield curve. Check out free sample issues of the https://bobmurphyshow.com/lmr (Lara-Murphy Report). Bob and Carlos Lara’s https://lara-murphy.com/video0916/ (video), “How to Weather the Coming Financial Storms.” https://mises.org/library/winners-curse (Bob’s article on “the winner’s curse”) and the assumptions underlying the analysis. http://bobmurphyshow.com/contribute (Help support) the Bob Murphy Show. The audio production for this episode was provided by http://podsworth.com (Podsworth Media).