Warren Hatch: The Incredible Story Behind Superforecasting
Listen to Warren Hatch, the CEO of New York-based Good Judgment Inc., which specializes on superforecasting, in the most recent episode of 21st Century Entrepreneurship. In 2011, the US intelligence community's equivalent to DARPA - IARPA - launched a competition to find cutting-edge methods for forecasting geopolitical events. Four years and over 1 million forecasts later – with Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania leading – GJP emerged as the winner and outperformed intelligence analysts. Good Judgment Inc is now commercializing this winning approach to harness research by the crowd, and their clients benefit from that externally-validated forecasting methodology.