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Our Chief Latin American Equity Strategist explains how potential changes in Mexico\u2019s regulatory approach could have implications for the country\u2019s equity markets.

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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I\u2019m Nikolaj Lippmann, Morgan Stanley\u2019s Chief Latin American Equity Strategist. Today I\u2019ll talk about Mexico\u2019s recent judicial reform and its potential impact on equities market.

It\u2019s Friday, September 20, at 10am in Mexico City.

Mexico has made significant changes to its judicial system. After winning two-thirds majority in both houses \u2013 enough to allow for constitutional changes \u2013 Mexico policymakers have embarked on a robust reform agenda. Their first stop is a comprehensive reform of the judicial branch, which aims at replacing roughly 2,000 senior judges including the entire Supreme Court. 

New judges will no longer be appointed but will now be elected by popular vote. This is practically unprecedented in a global context, and while the executive branch might still try to filter future candidates, this new system will likely create a real risk to checks and balances on the judicial branch as well as to expertise and procedure. Additional reforms, including the elimination of independent regulatory bodies, would likely compound these risks. 

The judicial reform could have a material impact on Mexican equities. So much so, that we think Mexico goes from being an investor favorite to a \u2018show me\u2019 story where investors are less likely to give the market the benefit of the doubt. This is likely to result in a derailing or lower set of multiples being paid by investors in Mexican equities or higher risk premium required to invest. 

Essentially, the judicial reforms could add fiscal, labor and concession/regulatory risk for Mexican companies, even though Mexico has deep manufacturing ecosystems, and has been well-positioned from the transition to [a] multipolar world. Just to give you a sense. Mexico has already sailed past China in terms of manufacturing exports to the United States, and are now approaching the levels of the entire European Union in terms of manufacturing export to the US. 

These new reforms will raise significant investor concerns, so much so that we\u2019ve downgraded Mexican equities to underweight, a second downgrade since June. Mexican equities have sold off roughly 20 per cent in the past three months, in dollar terms. And we think the judicial reform may contribute to further decline. All in, we see significantly greater potential for negative outcomes than positive outcomes going forward.

Looking ahead, we see three key challenges for Mexico: 

First, the new judicial structure would raise concerns about the independence of the judicial branch. 

Second, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the USMCA, is up for review in 2026, and Mexico's judicial reform could mean a much deeper revision. Mexico has committed to maintaining independent regulatory bodies for a number of areas, such as telecom, electricity, in competition. The judicial reform could complicate this commitment. 

Electricity is a key challenge for Mexico, and it requires immediate investments. Our nearshoring investment thesis stands, but the electricity-related challenges are becoming more pronounced, and they won\u2019t be helped by investor concerns around the judicial reform. 

So all in, some businesses will be at greater risk from these developments. We expect technology, digitalization, real estate companies to be at the least level of risk, or the lowest level of risk. Domestic concessions could be at more risk. 

We will continue to bring you relevant updates as Mexico reforms unfold. 

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