Walmart Is The Canary In The Retail Coal Mine Ep.113

Published: Oct. 15, 2015, 12:11 a.m.


\n\t* We finally got some economic news today, all of it bad
\n\t* All of it "unexpected"...
\n\t* Hope springs eternal on Wall Street
\n\t* That's why the Federal Reserve can maintain its forecast of an interest rate hike before the end of the year
\n\t* Although now a second Fed official has come out saying he doesn't think a rate hike will be appropriate this year
\n\t* All this was forecasted by me; there was a method to their madness to maintain the theater that a rate hike is even possible
\n\t* When is the Fed going to admit that their earlier forecast of a big recovery and liftoff is wrong?
\n\t* CNBC finally admitted they do not want me on because I correctly predicted that the Fed would not raise rates
\n\t* The same is true for Bloomberg
\n\t* However,\xa0 the last time I was on Fox Business, that video on my YouTube Channel got over 80,000 views
\n\t* That is probably more people who viewed the live show!
\n\t* By the way, don't forget to like me on Facebook follow me on Twitter and and subscribe to my YouTube Channel
\n\t* It's not going to be too much longer before more and more people will agree the Fed is not going to raise rates
\n\t* If I am right and the Fed launches QE4, it will be hard for the conventional media to ignore me - I am not saying it will be impossible, though
\n\t* These podcasts are developing a greater and greater audience, and you can help spread the word by sharing them, to get the word out
\n\t* Let's get to the economic data, starting with the Weekly Mortgage Applications
\n\t* This number was significant in the precipitous 27.6% drop in the composite index with purchased mortgages dropping 34%
\n\t* Part of this was due to last week's big jump as mortgage applicants tried to get ahead of new government rules
\n\t* But the drop is much bigger than the pop - this is a bad sign
\n\t* The consensus forecast for the Producer Price Index was for month over month prices to drop .2% instead they dropped .5%
\n\t* Year over year, down 1.1%; last month it was down .8%
\n\t* This is bad news to the Fed, which is looking for higher inflation
\n\t* The real negative news was the September Retail Sales Number
\n\t* It was expected to be weak, up only .1 and that's what we got, but last month's .2 number was revised down to flat
\n\t* Now we're up .1 from zero, meaning August and September Retail Sales missed expectations
\n\t* This will pull numbers away from Q3 GDP
\n\t* I think we will get Q3 GDP below 1%
\n\t* It might be below zero, which will be the first half of a recession
\n\t* We also got Business inventories, which were unchanged, but the inventory ot sales ration popped up to 1.37 - that ties the high for the move
\n\t* This glut of product is bad news for the economy
\n\t* The last 2 times we had inventory to sales ration this high, we were already in recession - 2001 and 2008
\n\t* The worst news was Walmart's bombshell announcement that profits are suffering due to labor costs
\n\t* Their sales are suffering, too
\n\t* 75% of the losses are due to higher wages and the balance came from lower sales
\n\t* Walmart is the nation's biggest retailer and should benefit most from a stronger dollar and cheap gas
\n\t* Walmart's stock was down 10% on the day, one of the worst days in the history of Walmart
\n\t* YTD, it is down 33% from its highs - a super bear market for Walmart
\n\t* The Left proclaims that Walmart is getting rich on the backs of the workers - a collapse in Walmart stock price is not good for workers because profits are what creates the jobs
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