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\n \t* Aliens didn't invade the Earth, and the Federal Reserve didn't raise interest rates
\n \t* If you remember, I was pegging the probability of each at roughly the same
\n \t* True to form, the Federal Reserve did pretty much exactly what I thought they were going to do and not raise interest rates
\n \t* Now I thought they might have tried to lower expectations for the probability in the markets of a December rate hike
\n \t* Even though they didn't say that, that was the effect of their announcement
\n \t* If you look at the dot plots, for example, the FOMC members were looking for rates to be lower for longer
\n \t* Surely, if you look at the reaction to the market, the market does not appear to be worried about a rate hike coming in either November or December, even though the Fed still maintains the narrative that the possibility still exists
\n \t* The Fed reiterated that the case for a rate hike had increased
\n \t* But, they chose not to raise rates despite their narrative
\n \t* Their reason was that they wanted to see more data
\n \t* This is exactly what I said after Yellen's statement at Jackson Hole
\n \t* The media interpreted her statement as a signal that a September rate hike was likely
\n \t* What did I say?
\n \t* I said the Fed didn't say anything about hiking
\n \t* They were speaking about the case for a hike
\n \t* I described it as a scale from, say 0 - 10
\n \t* If the case were a 3 and then it became a 4, the case had strengthened
\n \t* But if the Fed needs 10, and we're only at 4, they're not going to hike
\n \t* They never came clean about their scale, they simply said that the case for a hike had increased
\n \t* That doesn't mean they were going to raise rates, and that's exactly what happened
\n \t* It's interesting that in all of the prepared remarks and in the following press conference
\n \t* Janet Yellen never once admitted that the economy is weakening
\n \t* In fact, she continues to pretend that everything is great
\n \t* Ironically, one of the questions in the Q&A had to do with Donald Trump's position that the Fed is not raising interest rates for political reasons
\n \t* Which, of course is exactly why they're not raising them
\n \t* If they raise interest rates, everything would collapse, and so would Hillary Clinton's election prospects
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