Ep. 215: Irrational Exuberance Trumps All

Published: Dec. 23, 2016, 1:35 a.m.


\n \t* The Dow 20,000 party is going to have to wait - at least for another day
\n \t* The Dow was down a little bit today - 23 to 19,918
\n \t* The broader market was a bit weaker than the Dow
\n \t* The markets continue to shrug off very weak economic news that came out throughout the day
\n \t* We got bombarded with all sorts of negative pieces of news that ordinarily, maybe before the election of Donald Trump, would have weighed down the market
\n \t* Certainly it would have weighed on the currency markets
\n \t* The dollar would have been very weak and gold would have had a big rally
\n \t* Instead, gold was down a little bit, and the dollar rose a little bit despite very weak economic data that I will get to
\n \t* I want to start off by focusing on the stock market and the optimism which is really quite ridiculous and unfounded
\n \t* Part of the reason for the rally, though, is a lack of selling
\n \t* We have a lot of people mindlessly buying the markets, but you don't have a lot of selling
\n \t* One of the reasons is that people would rather sell in January than in December
\n \t* People are enthusiastic about Trump's presidency because he will cut taxes
\n \t* If you have a gain in the stock market, why realize that gain now in the waning trading days of 2016
\n \t* If you sell now, not only do you have to get your check into the IRS by April of next year
\n \t* But also, you've got to pay the current tax rate
\n \t* If you wait until the firs week of January, you don't have to pay taxes until a year from this coming April
\n \t* You have all that time to use the money and the tax rates may be a lot lower
\n \t* So why sell now? A lot of people are being given that advice; don't sell now - wait until January
\n \t* Who knows - this market could ring in the new year with a major sell-off
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