Bad Economic News... When It Rains, It Pours Ep 74

Published: April 16, 2015, 1:40 p.m.


\n\t* Dollar usually drops on bad news but rallies because traders automatically buy on the dip
\n\t* Bad news is dismissed because the first quarter "doesn't count"
\n\t* This puts greater pressure on the last 3 quarters to make up for the first quarter and still show growth
\n\t* Expectations of a bump similar to last year are based on non-repeatable conditions - Obamacare and inventory build
\n\t* Inventory to sales ratio is the highest it has been since 2009
\n\t* What is the basis for dismissal of the bad news in Q1?
\n\t* Data confirms that the consumer is already broke
\n\t* Consumers will be hit with rising oil prices
\n\t* Traders who are loading up on the dollar are ignoring all the evidence that they are wrong
\n\t* The wake-up call will be like the sub-prime mortgage crisis
\n\t* The same thing will happen in the Foreign Exchange Markets when they realize the story is not about a recovery but about another round of QE
\n\t* Changing trend coming in the dollar
\n\t* Changing trend in the oil market
\n\t* Changing trend in the gold market
\n\t* If we don't get a recovery in the summer how is the Fed going to raise rates in Q4?
\n\t* Election year 2016 will likely see no rate hikes
\n\t* Retail Sales missed Wall Street expectations with a bounce of only .9
\n\t* March Small Business Optimism fell to lowest level in 9 months
\n\t* Hiring Plans dropped to lowest level in 6 months
\n\t* Business Inventories for February rose to .3 based on weak wholesale sales
\n\t* Inventory to Sales Ratio holding at 1.36 (highest since July of 2009)
\n\t* My radio broadcasts from a year ago predicted that the data was not reflecting reality
\n\t* April Empire State Manufacturing Index missed expectations at -1.9, near a 2-year low
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\n\t* Employment down
\n\t* Hours worked down
\n\t* New orders down to 3-year lows
\n\t* Prices paid went up
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\n\t* March Industrial Production dropped .6, missing expectations - 4th consecutive month below estimate
\n\t* This news can't be blamed on April showers
\n\t* Those who have been betting on the recovery are about to realize they made the wrong bet
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