How Likely Is War Over Taiwan?

Published: June 1, 2024, 7 a.m.

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So much of what we hear about China and Russia today likens the relationship between these two autocracies and the West to a \\u201crivalry\\u201d or a \\u201cgreat-power competition.\\u201d Some might consider it alarmist to say we are in the midst of a second Cold War, but that may be the only responsible way to describe today\\u2019s state of affairs.

What\\u2019s more, we have come a long way from Mao Zedong\\u2019s infamous observation that \\u201cpolitical power grows out of the barrel of a gun.\\u201d Now we live in an age more aptly described by Vladimir Putin\\u2019s cryptic prophecy that \\u201cartificial intelligence is the future not only of Russia, but of all mankind, and whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become ruler of the world.\\u201d

George S. Takach\\u2019s incisive and meticulously researched new volume, Cold War 2.0, is the book we need to thoroughly understand these frightening and perilous times. In the geopolitical sphere, there are no more pressing issues than the appalling mechanizations of a surveillance state in China, Russia\\u2019s brazen attempt to assert its autocratic model in Ukraine, and China\\u2019s increasingly likely plans to do the same in Taiwan.

But the key here, Takach argues, is that our new Cold War is not only ideological but technological: the side that prevails in Cold War 2.0 will be the one that bests the other in mastering the greatest innovations of our time. Artificial intelligence sits in our pockets every day\\u2014but what about AI that coordinates military operations and missile defense systems? Or the highly sophisticated semiconductor chips and quantum computers that power those missiles and a host of other weapons? And, where recently we have seen remarkable feats of bio-engineering to produce vaccines at record speed, shouldn\\u2019t we be concerned how catastrophic it would be if bio-engineering were co-opted for nefarious purposes?

Takach thoroughly examines how each of these innovations will shape the tension between democracy and autocracy, and how each will play a central role in this second Cold War. Finally, he crafts a precise blueprint for how Western democracies should handle these innovations to respond to the looming threat of autocracy\\u2014and ultimately prevail over it.

George S. Takach holds a bachelor\\u2019s degree in history, political economy, and philosophy from the University of Toronto; a graduate degree from the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University; and a law degree from the University of Toronto. For forty years, he practiced technology law at McCarthy T\\xe9trault, Canada\\u2019s premier law firm. He has written three books on technology law/tech commercial subjects. Cold War 2.0: Artificial Intelligence in the New Battle between China, Russia, and America is his first book for a general audience.

Shermer and Takach discuss: Vladimir Putin: \\u201cartificial intelligence is the future not only of Russia, but of all mankind, and whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become ruler of the world.\\u201d \\u2022 what AI will be able to do in the coming decades \\u2022 China\\u2019s surveillance state \\u2022 Russia and Ukraine \\u2022 Cold War 1.0: Autocracy, Democracy and Technology \\u2022 Cold War 2.0: AI and Autocracy and Democracy \\u2022 semiconductor chip supremacy \\u2022 biotechnology \\u2022 how China\\u2019s invasion of Taiwan is likely to unfold, and what the U.S. can do about it.

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