9-7-2020 Hot Topic: August 2020 Ainsworth Advisors Discussion

Published: Sept. 7, 2020, 5 p.m.

Announcement by GSEs\u2026 assessing risk of the refinance market..We\u2019ve seen a tightening of credit due to the current crisis\u2026 Fannie and Freddie have taken a bigger share\u2026Opportunity for an increased refinance market\u2026 at 50 basis points, the cash position will increase rapidly\u2026The flood of refinances, margins at their widest levels\u2026 so it\u2019s a 50 basis point tax on refinances\u2026The academic view vs the view from inside\u2026 understanding the impact of a decision\u2026There\u2019s a finite amount of capital available\u2026 lenders need to adjust their lending\u2026 impact on Independent Mortgage Bankers\u2026The importance of the relationship between Independent Mortgage Bankers and Warehouse lenders\u2026 you could see the availability of funds from Warehouse Lenders constrict in the next 6 -12 months\u2026A look at monthly volume growth at GinnieMae\u2026 churning the portfolios\u2026Investors are reluctant\u2026 it\u2019s a domestic market, not an international market\u2026They\u2019re making money\u2026 you\u2019ve got to be able to support your infrastructure\u2026 because this will go away\u2026A look at the rising FICO scores and the age bracket 50+ in the market\u2026There\u2019s a huge pipeline of delinquencies that are about to hit\u2026 delinquencies tied to unemployment rate\u2026There is an increase in delinquencies ahead of us\u2026 period. Refinances are propping up the current market\u2026100 million Americans rent their housing now\u2026 28.9 \u2013 39.9% are at risk of eviction in 2020\u2026Only those who are forward-thinking are preparing for when the bottom is going to fall out\u2026\xa0Announcement by GSEs\u2026 assessing risk of the refinance market..We\u2019ve seen a tightening of credit due to the current crisis\u2026 Fannie and Freddie have taken a bigger share\u2026Opportunity for an increased refinance market\u2026 at 50 basis points, the cash position will increase rapidly\u2026The flood of refinances, margins at their widest levels\u2026 so it\u2019s a 50 basis point tax on refinances\u2026The academic view vs the view from inside\u2026 understanding the impact of a decision\u2026There\u2019s a finite amount of capital available\u2026 lenders need to adjust their lending\u2026 impact on Independent Mortgage Bankers\u2026The importance of the relationship between Independent Mortgage Bankers and Warehouse lenders\u2026 you could see the availability of funds from Warehouse Lenders constrict in the next 6 -12 months\u2026A look at monthly volume growth at GinnieMae\u2026 churning the portfolios\u2026Investors are reluctant\u2026 it\u2019s a domestic market, not an international market\u2026They\u2019re making money\u2026 you\u2019ve got to be able to support your infrastructure\u2026 because this will go away\u2026A look at the rising FICO scores and the age bracket 50+ in the market\u2026There\u2019s a huge pipeline of delinquencies that are about to hit\u2026 delinquencies tied to unemployment rate\u2026There is an increase in delinquencies ahead of us\u2026 period. Refinances are propping up the current market\u2026100 million Americans rent their housing now\u2026 28.9 \u2013 39.9% are at risk of eviction in 2020\u2026Only those who are forward-thinking are preparing for when the bottom is going to fall out\u2026