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On today's episode of "Forward Guidance," Jack Farley is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass newsletter and host of The Macro Trading Floor podcast on the Blockworks network. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. \n\nAlfonso joins Jack to share his outlook on the Fed\u2019s efforts to tighten financial conditions in the hope of reining in inflation. Will these efforts crush the stock market? Will the Fed get its much-desired soft landing? Are there emerging signs of stress in credit spreads? In Alfonso's mind, one thing is for sure, Powell will NOT pivot this time. Monetary policy will be tightened until inflation is under control, Alfonso argues, and those investors relying on a Powell Pivot will be left holding the bag. \n\nAlfonso\u2019s writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/, here are some of the specific pieces he and Jack referenced:\n\n\u201cWhat If?\u201d: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/what-if?s=r\n\u201cA Mistaken Attempt at Sounding Dovish\u201d: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/serious-ish-about-inflation?s=r\n\nAlfonso Peccatiello on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf\nJack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96\nBlockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_\nSubscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/\n\n\nBCB is Europe\u2019s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world\u2019s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.\n\nFor more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack\n\n--\n(00:00) Introduction\n(00:33) Tightening Financial Conditions\n(08:17) The Macro Compass Quadrant Model\n(12:08) Stock Market Time Horizons \n(15:44) Shorting The S&P 500\n(19:17) BCB Ad\n(20:06) Surging High Yield Bonds in Europe\n(22:53) Credit Spreads\n(29:43) Powell Is NOT Going to Pivot\n(35:42) Will the Fed Get Their Soft Landing?\n(38:58) When Will Bonds Become a Buy?\n(47:08) Changing Your Minds in Markets\n--\nDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.