Where The Next Big Bond Trade Is Hiding | Harley Bassman
In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed\u2019s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy!\n__\nFollow Harley Bassman: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven\nCheck out Harley\u2019s website: https://www.convexitymaven.com\nFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc\nFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance\nFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_\n__\nJoin us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii\n\u2014\nTimestamps:\n00:00 Introduction\n00:54 Implied Forward Rates\n03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession\n07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance\n11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields\n13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity\n18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread\n23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate\n26:11 The Fed's Master Plan\n29:43 Permissionless Ad\n30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation?\n35:19 Labor Market & Immigration\n38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced?\n40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt\n42:03 Market Opportunities\n44:33 Equities & Rates\n47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work\n\n__\nDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets