Mike Green: Recession Approaches As Housing & Car Markets Weaken
b"Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the labor market, the U.S. economy, and stocks and bonds. Green tells Jack Farley that the apparent strength of the labor market is not fully capturing the layoffs in tech, and that last year\\u2019s spike in interest rates are already causing damage in commercial real estate and auto lending that is only beginning to draw attention.\\n\\nGreen concludes that the U.S. economy is headed towards a recession, and he then proceeds to explain zero day-to-expiry (\\u201c0DTE\\u201d) options and weigh hedging strategies in the volatility space. Filmed on February 28th, 2023.\\n\\nToday's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance\\n--\\nMike Green\\u2019s Substack: https://michaelwgreen.substack.com/\\nFollow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99\\nFollow Simplify on Twitter https://twitter.com/SimplifyAsstMgt\\nFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96\\nFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance\\nFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_\\n--\\nGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:\\nhttps://rb.gy/5weeyw\\nMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can\\u2019t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research \\u201cDaily Debrief\\u201d Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos\\n--\\nTimestamps:\\n\\n(00:00) Introduction\\n(00:45) Is The Labor Market Truly Strong?\\n(05:46) Where We Are In The Economic Cycle\\n(08:40) Commercial Real Estate & Auto Market\\n(10:59) Interest Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Economy\\n(14:20) We Are Approaching A Recession\\n(20:52) Explaining The Recent Rally\\n(24:58)\\xa0Is Liquidity Rising?\\n(29:08) Public Ad\\n(30:12) The True Cause Of Inflation\\n(33:19) Debt Is Just A Tool\\n(36:02) Outlook on Stocks And Bonds\\n(38:25) What A Bear Market Dominated By Passive Flows Looks Like\\n(42:47) Zero Day To Expiry Options (0DTE)\\n(58:49) Conclusions about 0DTE Options\\n(01:06:03) Simplify Asset Management\\n(01:09:16) Advanced Discussion on Options & Hedging\\n(01:13:29) Disclaimer on Options\\n(01:14:24) Cash Is A Cheap Option\\n--\\nDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets."