Mike Green: Passive Stock Market Edifice Put To The Test As Recession A Near Certainty
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.\n\nThis interview was recorded at 10am ET on Friday, August 2. The jobs report, which was released 90 minutes prior at 8:30am ET, showed the unemployment rate move non-linearly up from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the stock market fell sharply and short-term interest rate futures market priced in a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve doing a DOUBLE (50 bps) cut by its September meeting. The Fed Funds pricing changed throughout our interview and Jack references that in the conversation.\n___\n\nFollow Mike Green on Twitter https://x.com/profplum99\nMike Green\u2019s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/\nFollow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us\nFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96\nFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance\nFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_\nYouTube video on Canadian market bubble and Nortel Networks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss&t=2219s&ab_channel=BobbyBroccoli\n__\nTimestamps:\n(00:00) Introduction\n(00:13) Stock Market Pukes In Reaction To Horrible Jobs Report\n(05:45) Is The U.S. In A Recession Now?\n(06:01) How Passive Investing Has Driven The Stock Market Higher\n(28:35) VanEck Ad\n(29:15) Passive Flows In The Context Of Other Market Forces\n(32:25) Has Passive Investing Boosted Valuations of The Biggest Companies?\n(42:25) Will The Same Passive Forces That Boosted The Market Higher Work In Reverse Now That The Market Is Declining?\n(48:40) Permissionless Ad\n(49:39) If Passive Is A Bubble, It Can Get A Whole Lot Bigger\n(53:16) SPAC Flows Are No More\n(01:16:52) Soros-like Reflexivity of High Stock Prices\n(01:18:49) Mike's Views On Ongoing "Market Hiccup"\n(01:34:00) Mike's Closing Thoughts on Private Credit\n__\nDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.