Late Cycle Bond Trades | Mark Cabana on Mild Recession Case and Treasury Market Supply

Published: July 24, 2023, 7:32 p.m.

Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today\u2019s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which he expects to fall modestly as the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle approaches an end. Cabana also discusses the U.S. Treasury\u2019s renewed issuance of Treasury bills as well as the SEC\u2019s new ruling on money markets. Filmed on July 18, 2023.\n--\nFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96\nFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance\nFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_\n--\nGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:\nhttps://rb.gy/5weeyw\n\nMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can\u2019t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research \u201cDaily Debrief\u201d Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos\n--\nTimecodes:\n(00:00) Introduction\n(00:29) This Is A Very Strange Bond Market\n(05:59) Funding Pressures For Banks Have Eased, Looking At Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) Issuance Data\n(14:38) Migration Of Deposits Into Money Market Funds (MMFs) Has Slowed\n(23:00) Who's Going To Buy The Bonds?\n(31:51) Deep Dive on Treasury Bond Yields\n(34:29) Why (And When) Will The Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates?\n(42:47) Will Quantitative Tightening (QT) Continue For A Long Time?\n(46:32) 10-Year Treasury Is Very Clean Expression Of End-Of-Cycle Trade\n(49:54) SEC's New Rule For Money Market Funds\n--\nDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.