Following The "Fed Breadcrumbs" | Nick Timiraos on Not Hot At All Labor Market, Interest Rate Cuts, and Feds Collision Course With 2024 Election

Published: Aug. 1, 2024, 8:19 p.m.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.\n\nFollow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://x.com/NickTimiraos\nNick\u2019s work at WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos\nFollow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us\nFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96\nFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance\nFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_\nNick\u2019s book https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817\nNick\u2019s article on Fed and 2024 election: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-inflation-politics-a6e527de\n__\n\nTimestamps:\n(00:00) Introduction\n(12:35) VanEck Ad\n(13:14) Interview Continues\n(19:35) What Would It Take For The Fed To NOT Cut In September?\n(24:17) Is The Federal Reserve Worried About A Weakening Labor Market?\n(25:44) Immigration's Impact On U.S. Labor Market\n(31:41) The Housing Market\n(36:41) Permissionless Ad\n(37:40) Politics And The Fed: "September Rate Cut Would Thrust Fed Into Brutal Election Campaign"\n(47:24) It's Simply A Fact: Former President Donald Trump Likes Low Interest Rates\n(50:37) Could Donald Trump Fire Fed Chair Jay Powell If Re-Elected President?\n(54:49) Economic Forecasting Is Very Difficult, And There Is Always A Point of Data That Confirms One View Or Another\n(57:47) What If High Interest Rates Are Actually Stimulative? Nick Doesn't Buy It (And Neither Does The Fed)\n(01:02:44) The Way The Fed Thinks About Financial Conditions\n__\nDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.