Does Powell Mean Business? | David Hay
Today Jack Farley speaks with David Hay, chief investment officer of Evergreen Gavekal and publisher of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack. Hay entered the investment business the same year as Paul Volcker became the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he shares what the investment world looked like then, beaten down by inflation and obsessed on commodities such as gold and oil.\xa0\nHay describes how Volcker\u2019s drastic actions turned him into a bond bull (\u201cVolcker meant business\u201d) for his entire career, but he shares why now he is not optimistic about bonds despite falling inflation and Fed Chair Powell\u2019s spirited rate hikes. Farley asks Hay if Powell \u201cmeans business,\u201d and Hay shares his insights on corporate bonds, nuclear energy, and common investor mistakes. Hay also argues that unprofitable growth stocks could have another leg down as bond yields continue to rise.\nFollow David Hay on Twitter https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0\nFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96\nFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance\nFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_\nHaymaker Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/\n__\nUse code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:\nhttps://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023\n__\nResearch, news, data, governance and models \u2013 now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/\n__\nGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:\nhttps://rb.gy/5weeyw\nMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can\u2019t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research \u201cDaily Debrief\u201d Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos\n__\nDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.\n__\nTimestamps:\n00:00 Intro\n02:38 Is The Bond Bull Market Over?\n09:32 A Fiscal Funding Crisis?\n11:09 Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)\n14:32 Are Rate Hikes Effective At Fighting Inflation?\n17:44 Hay's Bearish View On Bonds\n21:07\xa0Oil, Gas, Uranium, and Copper\n30:04 Permissionless\n31:05 Investing in Corporate Bonds\n34:17 Individual Stock Ideas\n37:26 New Lows In Stock Market?\n40:33 Outlook on Energy Stocks: "Easy Money Has Already Been Made"\n49:15 About Evergreen Gavekal and The Haymaker Substack\n51:44 Learning From The Volcker Era: What Was 1980 & 1981 Like?\n55:33 Does Powell Mean Business?\n58:10 Blockworks Research Plug\n59:07 Dos & Don'ts of Investing\n01:06:09 The Most Crowded Trade Right Now\n01:09:05 Another Down Leg In High-Valuation Stocks?