Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.\nVanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/\n__\nFollow Claudia Sahm on Twitter https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm\nFollow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us\nFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96\nFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance\nFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_\n__\nUse code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks\u2019 Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london\n__\n(00:00) Introduction\n(00:34) Why There Was No Recession In 2023\n(03:00) It Remains My Base Case That We Avoid A Recession\n(05:01) Market Often Pays Too Much Attention To Individual Data Points\n(10:39) Overview Of Sahm Rule And The Labor Market: "Once The Fed Starts To See A Modest Amount Of Weakening In The Labor Market, It's Probably Too Late"\n(12:36) Sahm: I'm More Worried That The Fed Breaks Something In Financial Markets, I'm Less Worried About The Labor Market\n(15:04) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Its Issues Likely To Be "A Slow Burn"\n(16:57) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Was "Bread and Butter" For Fed\n(20:54) The Sahm Rule Hasn't Been Triggered Yet - But How Close Are We?\n(23:31) Notion Of 'Technical Recession' (2 Quarters of QoQ Real GDP Decline) Totally Failed\n(25:59) VanEck Ad\n(26:46) Labor Market\n(29:45) JOLTS Can Be A "Problematic" Measure To Interpret\n(36:12) Never Bet Against The American Consumer\n(40:27) The Housing Market\n(41:51) The Fed Should Never Be Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Again\n(49:35) Neutral Policy Rate\n(55:51) If/When The Fed Cuts Interest Rates, It Will Be Orderly (Unless There Is A Crisis)\n__\nDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.