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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.\n\nFollow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://x.com/michaelxpettis\nFollow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us\nFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96\nFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance\nFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_\nRecent writings by Michael Pettis:\n\u201cWhich Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?\u201d: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2024/07/which-country-should-design-us-industrial-policy?lang=en\n\u201cTrade and the Manufacturing Share\u201d: https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/trade-and-the-manufacturing-share/\n\u201cTrade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace\u201d: https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177\n__\nTimestamps:\n(00:00) Introduction\n(01:18) The Problem With China's Investment-Driven Growth Model\n(09:52) Why Increasing China's Consumption Is So Hard\n(17:36) China's Plan To Reignite Economic Growth In China\n(20:43) Why China Will Follow Similar Path To Japan In Its Economic Decline In 1990s\n(24:03) Impact That Trade Surplus Countries (China, Germany, etc.) Have on Trade Deficit Countries (U.S., U.K., etc.)\n(28:06) VanEck Ad\n(28:46) Interview Continues\n(36:59) The Fall of The "Trade Is Always Good" Consensus Among Economists\n(49:58) Permissionless Ad\n(50:57) Is China "Cheating At Trade"?\n(57:19) The Three Things The U.S. Can Do To Respond To Its Role As "Global Consumer Of Last Resort"\n(01:01:53) Why U.S. Capital Controls Are Necessary To Truly Fix The American Trade Deficit\n(01:06:35) Both Trump and Biden Factions Are Determined To Resolve U.S.' Trade Imbalances\n(01:08:36) China's Move From Real Estate To Manufacturing Is Exacerbating Its Trade Surplus With The Rest Of The World\n(01:14:53) Chinese Real Estate Crisis Unlikely To Imperil The Chinese Banking System, Argues Pettis (Because The Government Is In Control)\n(01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System?\n(01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out\n(01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China\n__\nDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.