Flipping America 359, "Is the RE Market Going to Crash?"

Published: May 4, 2020, 4 p.m.

b'

No one really knows the future, but with real estate, there are a number of signposts that can predict where we are heading. Today\\u2019s show is a call from last week as part of the Flipping America REIA group. On the call we talked about the real estate leading indicators, what they tell us, and how to get the data. Plus I provide a link for everyone listening to grab your own copy of this report - I\\u2019m not even asking for your email address - it\\u2019s a simple link on my website. You\\u2019re welcome.\\xa0 If you are paying attention, real estate moves just slowly enough you can adjust course and make wise decisions.\\xa0

What are the leading indicators for the real estate market?

Where do we get the data?

How should we interpret the data?

What makes the real estate market trends different from stock market trends?

What does it mean to be a "nimble" real estate investor and how do you accomplish that?

We will answer these questions and more on the call.

How to contact us

www.RogerBlankenship.com. Leave a voicemail right from the home page!

Facebook.com/flippingamericamedia

Twitter and Instagram @FlippingAmerica

Call our National Comment Line: 877-55-ROGER (76437) \\xa0 ext 1. Leave your message or your question.\\xa0

Email your questions to questions@rogerblankenship.com. Please always tell us where you are from. We like to know where the show is being heard. And let us know how you found out about us if you don\\u2019t mind.\\xa0

Sponsors

American IRA: www.americanIRA.com

Civic Financial: bit.ly/CivicFinancial

FlipStarter Online! www.flipstarteronline.com

Announcements:

  • The Flipping America REIA meets every Wednesday from noon to 2 and Thursday from 7-9. You can join the REIA and learn real estate investing from the comfort of your own home, or get together with a few friends and form a chapter in your area. Learn more at flippingamericareia.com.\\xa0\\xa0
  • Flipping America App is in the app store. You can listen to the show, read the show notes, and the entire catalog of shows is now available to you. It\\u2019s a free download and there are no upsells or in-app purchases. Free to download, free to listen. Go ahead and give it a try and drop me a line and let me know what you think.
  • FlipCalcs allows you to enter one data set about a property and consider up to six deal possibilities .\\xa0
  • \\u201cReal Estate Investing Quick Start\\u201d Fifteen lessons to start your real estate investing career. Study from the comfort of your own home. I give you 8 action assignments in lesson 1 and show you how to complete them while holding your feet to the fire over the next 15 lessons. bit.ly/requickstart.

Topic: Market Indicators. Is the Market Going to Crash?\\xa0

  • In a word. No. It\\u2019s going to adjust. There will be opportunities, but it\\u2019s not going to crash.\\xa0

Real Estate Leading Indicators

Indicators

  1. Pricing Trends. Impact: Informs our Offer strategy
    1. Where is the market heading in the past quarter?
    2. What is the year over year difference? Which direction is it heading?
    3. Housing Data Report from realtor.com
    4. Realtor.com Data\\xa0
    1. How long does it take to sell a house?
      1. https://www.zillow.com/sellers-guide/average-time-to-sell-a-house/
      2. https://www.thebalance.com/how-long-does-it-take-to-sell-a-house-1799050
      3. https://smartasset.com/mortgage/how-long-does-it-take-to-sell-a-house
      4. https://www.inman.com/2017/11/10/5-key-factors-average-time-sell-house-every-homeowner-needs-know/
  2. Average Days on Market. Saturation rate. Impact: Informs our Offer price due to hold time.
  3. How many months (or weeks) supply of inventory is out there? 3 months is balanced. At the rate properties are selling, how long would it take us to sell out the current inventory?
    1. Housing\\xa0 Starts US Gov
    2. Housing Starts from Trading Economics
  4. Housing Starts
    1. Realty Trac foreclosure data
    2. AttomData foreclosure data
    3. CoreLogic foreclosure data
    4. Statista
  5. Mortgage Default and foreclosure rates: Google: \\u201cForeclosure Data\\u201d and \\u201cDefault Rate\\u201d
    1. Bankrate
    2. NerdWallet
  6. Interest Rates: Impact - Rates determine relative affordability. Can impact sales.
    1. National Economic Conditions
    2. Unemployment rate
    3. Weekly Jobless Claim Data
    4. UC San Diego Data Center
  7. Overall Economic Conditions: Strong Economy, low unemployment = buyers. Weak or uncertain economy will slow market down.\\xa0
    1. Turner Cost Index
    2. NAHB Economics
  8. Construction Costs: Affect our rehab and holding costs, impact our initial offer.

Resources:

Housing Data Report from realtor.com

Realtor.com Data\\xa0

Redfin Data Center

National Association of Realtors Research Data

NAR Research and Statistics

Zillow Data

Market Data for Realtors (Subscription required)

Housing Starts

Questions:

Send your questions to questions@rogerblankenship.com

  • Janice, Canada, \\u201c1. how important is a well-designed space when buying and selling? The final price range correlates with the relative importance of design. Generally the higher the price the more important design is.
  • 2. Who generally chooses the fixtures and finishes? I tend to let my realtor in that market tell me what the house needs in terms of color / finishes / etc. On houses in the luxury market I sometimes hire a designer to work with the realtor in making the right choices. In all cases I\'m the decision-maker (or my project manager) because we have to balance the design considerations with the budget.

Motivational Thoughts for the day

\\u201cExperience is simply the name we give our mistakes.\\u201d -Oscar Wilde

'